The first months of 2025 have seen a noticeable rise in reports of “reverse migration,” as some migrants abandon their northbound journey to the U.S.-Mexico border and instead begin moving southwards.
This emerging trend presents new challenges for transit countries accustomed to managing and deterring northbound migration–such as determining how best to assist these migrants in returning to their countries of origin or expanding humanitarian programs for those unable to do so safely.
Compounding these challenges is a critical data gap. Publicly available information rarely distinguishes reverse migration from traditional northbound flows, making it difficult to fully understand or respond to the phenomenon.
Below, we assess what early data is available in an ongoing effort to glean where reverse migration is currently being observed and to provide an early snapshot of what we know so far about these “return migrants.”
Sources for tracking reverse migration
As of this writing, sources for tracking reverse migration across the hemisphere remain limited. Mexican government data has not been updated since August 2024, and while most reports of reverse migration focus on Panama, Panamanian data lacks a specific filter to isolate reverse migration from overall irregular migrant encounters.
This leaves the Honduran and Colombian irregular migration databases as the primary sources where data is regularly updated and can be sorted by point of entry to allow for comparisons of different migration flows.
Data from Honduras, however, is inconclusive. The most telling indicator of reverse migration in this dataset would be a noticeable increase in encounters at the San Pedro Sula region, a northern administrative area bordering Guatemala. Yet, compared to the previous year, no such trend has emerged. In fact, no encounters have been recorded at San Pedro Sula at all through the first three months of 2025.
Fortunately, Colombian data offers a clearer view of the current dynamics of reverse migration among South American migrants. In February and March of 2025, Colombia recorded 4,513 encounters with migrants crossing into Colombia at its border with Panama. While this figure may appear modest, it is virtually unprecedented in recent years–only two such encounters were recorded in 2024 out of 400,612.
There have also been sharp shifts in where migrants are first encountered within Colombia. In 2024, 67% of all encounters occurred in the northern municipalities of Necoclí and Turbo, near the Darién Gap, consistent with a northbound trajectory. An additional 30% of encounters were recorded in Ipiales, near the southern border with Ecuador.
In February of 2025, 79% of all migrant encounters in Colombia were recorded in Ipiales, near the Ecuadorian border. This indicates that southbound migration at the Ecuador-Colombia crossing remains relatively consistent, while migration at Colombia’s border with Venezuela has declined more sharply. These figures suggest that migrants are still traveling northward through South America, but may be pausing their journeys—either settling in Colombia or being detained—rather than continuing onwards.
A more concrete sign of reverse migration can be seen in the municipality of Acandí, which serves as a key entry point into Colombia from Panama. After recording zero migrant encounters in 2024, Acandí logged 4,494 encounters in February 2025 alone. It now accounts for 15% of all recorded encounters, making it the municipality with the second-highest share after Ipiales.
While this data likely underestimates the true scale of return migration—particularly because returning Colombian nationals are not included in registries that track foreign migrants—it remains the only available source available that allows for a rough sketch of who these return migrants are.
Demographic profile of first returning migrants
The vast majority of migrants encountered at Colombia’s border with Panama are Venezuelan. This in itself is not surprising: Venezuelans comprised 99% of return migrants entering Colombia in early 2025, and they also made up 95% of northbound transit migrants during the same period.
However, a comparison between the current population of returning Venezuelan migrants and those who passed through Colombia in 2024 reveals some notable differences. Most significantly, adult return migrants are 13% more likely to be male. This suggests that women are more likely to receive temporary protection in countries along the reverse migration route.
The overall age distribution of returning migrants mirrors historical patterns. Approximately 18% of 2025 return migrants appear to be minors under the age of 18, while about 21% of the 2024 outbound group were 17 or younger.
Taken together, the notable decline in female adult returnees–alongside a relatively balanced gender ratio among children–may point to patterns of family separation during the migration journey, or suggest that complete family units are less likely to return southward compared to individual male migrants.
Implications for the future
The current snapshot of return migration comes with significant limitations. The only national group that can be tracked to any degree are Venezuelans, and while Venezuelans were the second-largest national group encountered at the U.S.-Mexico border in 2024, they nevertheless accounted for only 12% of total migrant encounters that year and may not be representative of return migrants as a whole.
The lack of consistent, detailed data from other governments in the region makes it difficult to track return migration among other key nationalities, such as Guatemalans, Cubans, and Haitians. Moreover, data from countries like Mexico, Honduras, and Colombia excludes their own citizens, offering an incomplete picture of the full scope of return migration.
Nonetheless, the phenomenon is poised to grow. Governments across the region would benefit from updating and refining their data collection systems to better distinguish between northbound and southbound flows—and to determine whether returning migrants are heading back to their countries of origin or settling elsewhere after abandoning plans to reach the United States. Doing so will make international cooperation on this new migrant flow easier to plan for and manage in both the short and long term.